Europe could have a very bright future ahead. With America seemingly intent on smashing up the existing world order through the discrediting of both Nato and the UN, Europe might finally loose itself from the reigns of its transatlantic overbearer and become a superpower in its own right.

America, not surprisingly, is rattled. Following the end of the cold war, which American commentators can often be heard chalking up as an American ‘victory’, the US found itself as the world’s only superpower - at least on a temporary basis. Even the most amateur of part-time statewatchers could see that very soon China would be rising to take Russia’s place and as every day passes that eventuality gets closer and ever more certain.

And so America was prepared for that. What it was not prepared for, though, was a Europe that could and would think for itself. Rumsfeld’s comments on ‘Old Europe’ state quite clearly how the Administration felt about its continental allies, and hints at its chagrin at their seeming reluctance to chant the American mantra.

Now France and Germany have proposed a credible alternative to immediate all-out war against Iraq. The Guardian reports:

The Franco-German plan, revealed at the weekend, would triple the number of UN weapons inspectors and back them up with surveillance flights. One unconfirmed report said thousands of UN troops would be sent into Iraq to support the inspectors.

But in The Times:

An extraordinary schism opened up in the Western alliance yesterday as Washington flatly rejected a Franco-German plan to avert war by pouring UN weapons inspectors — and troops — into Iraq.

President Putin of Russia last night backed the plan to turn Iraq into a de facto UN protectorate, due to be published on Friday, but President Bush and his leading officials bluntly declared that the United States would go it alone if the United Nations Security Council refused to approve military action.

Had this been proposed six months ago - or perhaps even six weeks ago - it might have been seen to be the answer to America’s demands for exhaustive checks on Iraq’s alleged, and denied, weapons of mass destruction. But apparently that’s no longer the case. In the Guardian, the previously quite measured Colin Powell is quoted:

Tripling the number of inspectors doesn’t deal with the issue. This idea of more inspectors, or no-fly zones, or whatever else may be in this proposal that is being developed is a diversion, not a solution.

America sees this as an unnecessary interruption and hindrance of its goals. Bush has warned that the UN risks rendering itself irrelevant. From Forbes:

U.S. President George W. Bush kept up pressure both on Baghdad and the U.N. Security Council at the weekend, saying the U.N. must move quickly or be deemed irrelevant.

Of course, the UN is moving quickly. It is moving as quickly as it can to avert war. The trouble is, it’s not moving in the direction in which America hoped it would. Instead, it is moving in reverse, which to American minds must be worse than not moving at all.

But of course, much of Europe is closely tied to Nato - another means through which the more peaceful European powers can fight the creeping American desire for war.

Turkey, being in the front line and a key American ally naturally sees itself as being a target in any potential war against Iraq in which it offers America assistance - something America has requested on several occasions. And so Turkey quite naturally requested assurances from its Nato allies that they would come to its aid in the event that it found itself under attack and the US suggested that missiles be positioned in key Turkish locations to enable a fast response.

France, Germany and Belgium blocked the move, seeing objection in this area as yet another hurdle America would have to overcome on its march to war.

It was a clever and logical move, but one that angered the United States. In the words of the BBC:

US ambassador Nicholas Burns said the alliance faced a “crisis of credibility” after what he called a “most unfortunate decision” by Turkey’s three Nato allies.

Notice yet again that it is everyone other that America that is putting the world at risk. Three European countries are causing Nato’s “crisis of credibility”; not, apparently, the US which is putting so much pressure on the organisation that it seems it may crumble at any moment. Two European countries (France and Germany), along with Russia, are the root of the crisis of relevance facing the UN; not, apparently, the US which is objecting to any move that might advance the cause of peace.

But if the true motivation of America’s relentless drive towards peace is a desire to prove its place in a rapidly changing world - a world in which it sees its position of solo superpower being threatened not only by China but by the European Union - then it is going about it the wrong way.

The more America pushes Europe, the more confidence it instils within the emerging confederation this side of the Atlantic. The more harm it does to the ‘relevance’ of the United Nations, the more national groupings will be like the European Union will be encouraged to govern themselves on a continental, rather than global level, and the more harm it does to Nato, the more Europe will find itself relying on the European Rapid Response Force, an idea traditionally loathed by America.

The Christian Science Monitor reported in August 2001 on comments made by Dan Coats, US ambassador to Germany:

Coats … warned that if Germany doesn’t increase its military spending, there’s a “great danger” that the European “rapid-response force” will be a “hollow force.” It would lack the “necessary infrastructure with training and equipment to be an effective fighting force unless it is supported by a sufficient budget.”

If Nato dissolves in the coming months, it is surely inevitable that the necessary funding for a European Rapid Response Force will come through.

So, a pan-continental governmental overseer akin to the United Nations, a pan-continental army and, at last, the confidence to be counted as a unified body distinct and separate from America could mean great things for Europe.

Britain, though, must decide. Is it part of that growing European Union, or an increasingly threatened and paranoid United State of America? Choose wisely and it has a bright future ahead. Choose poorly and it will be an island in more ways than one.

The crises facing the world can be defused through two simple manoeuvres. First, the UN can do precisely what the US has asked of it - it can move quickly to save itself becoming irrelevant. That’s not to say it should move in the direction the US requests. It should, instead, follow the Franco-German peace plan and fill Iraq with UN troops, turning it into a UN protectorate the US would never dare to bomb, and in which the development of weapons of mass destruction would be a practical impossibility.

Second, the UN should be relocated. Its headquarters in New York do more harm to its image than good. Increasingly the UN is seen as an underdog of the United States. Perhaps if it were not based in that country the US would feel less confident in its bullying tactics. It would in turn make the organisation more open. It is a mere few months since George Bush addressed the organisation in person, but his opponent, Saddam Hussein, and future opponents such as Kim Il-Jung and the like will never likely be able to do that for fear of what might happen the moment they step onto American soil.

A relocated United Nations will not only be stronger and more representative, it might be the only form in which it can survive.

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